ELECTRICITY AND FUNDING
WHERE DOES THE EXTRA ELECTRICITY COME FROM?
One of the concerns is about how additional amounts of electricity would be generated We at ASLEF have always been suspicious of nuclear power, and were quite alarmed in May this year when Gordon Brown said he wanted a ‘more ambitious’ nuclear power programme
This means that our argument for electrification needs to be taken on a further stage. We are seeking such a major change in rail infrastructure that we have to have every corner covered, every argument rehearsed. We will be considering different ways of generating electricity over the coming months – from ‘clean coal’ to using wind and tide and growing bio-fuels. One thing that seems certain is that oil is not a viable option for the future.
OIL IS A BAD BET
Oil is believed to have already reached its peak production, and can only decline from now on. Of the world’s 98 oil producing countries, 64 are thought to have passed their peak, and 60 of them are producing 2-3% less every year (this is something Alan Simpson discusses on page 6). Many experts believe oil will have run out completely 40 years from now.
At the same time the development of China’s economy means their demand for oil will double over the next 15 years, and India expects to need 30% more by 2013. The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre claims, ‘The first half of the oil age is now closed. It lasted 150 years and saw the rapid expansion of industry, transport, trade, agriculture and financial capital, allowing the population to expand six-fold. The second half now dawns, and will be marked by the decline of oil and all that depends on it - including financial capital."
The price of oil is widely expected to double within the next 12 months.
WHO WILL PROVIDE THE FUNDING?
When rail was privatised, BR’s planned electrification went with it. It is no surprise. The privatised franchised railway system is by its nature concerned with the short term. If you’ve got a franchise for seven years, there’s no point in worrying yourself about year eight. Put bluntly, electrification offers no profit to Network Rail and the TOCs and FOCs don’t hold franchises long enough to invest for the long-term.
ASLEF believes that to introduce change on the scale we envisage – as vast as that from steam to diesel – will mean funding from the public purse. ‘Modern Railways’ suggests that the infrastructure of wires and posts will cost £400,000 for every kilometre of single track. The ‘free market’ is not geared to such expenditure. It doesn’t have long-term social interest at its heart. That is not a criticism. It is a fact. This campaign will need solid and unwavering political commitment from all parties if it is to succeed.
But there will be rewards. Electrification will bring long term savings. Because there are fewer moving parts, train maintenance becomes simpler and cheaper, and because the vehicles vibrate less, electric traction trains have longer operational lives. But regardless of this, if oil is really not an option – there is nowhere else to go.
